2026 Investment Market Outlook

Mar 1, 2026
Categories: Spring 2026
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Financial Market Update

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Guest article by Rhonda Martin at Plan For Wealth

After two back-to-back growth years for investors, many Canadians are concerned whether these good times will continue — and where to place their investments and savings this year. In this article, Plan For Wealth has prepared five key themes that may help you navigate your investment decisions in 2026.

1. Know What You’re Invested In

Knowledge is key in 2026 — it will not be a year to just sit back and do nothing. It will be important more than ever to understand what holdings your investment funds include, and to do your research to find the investing opportunities in 2026 that might be suitable for you.

Are changes needed to your portfolio? Not sure? Consider getting a second opinion to help you build your knowledge and investing confidence.

2. Be Flexible

Markets are entering a transition period following interest rate cuts in Canada (and some in the U.S.). Ongoing tariff pressures, Canada’s new path of international trade discussions and the ever-accelerating investment in artificial intelligence (AI) will mean paying attention AND staying flexible.

Here is our high-level recap for this year:

  • The Opportunity: AI-driven investment remains a key growth engine this year.
  • The Risks: Tariffs and supply-chain disruptions will continue to influence volatility.
  • The Neutral: It is expected that while changes may come for the Canada U.S. Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA), it will stand.

3. Diversify Your Diversification!

Many investors know to diversify across asset classes and geographies but 2026 will put this to the test! To this, we say diversify even more. But where? Here are some thoughts:

Equities: Market growth of equities in general is expected to be positive, but modest.

Global growth will continue to surprise in 2026 and may provide opportunities if you are looking to round out your portfolio with holdings outside of Canada.

Despite geopolitical challenges and some labour market weakness, global gross domestic product at the end of 2025 was stronger than anticipated. Why? This was driven mainly by AI-related spending.

In other highlights, we believe Europe will face some uneven market conditions, while China will be balancing some market stimulus efforts — but with caution.

If you are currently under-weighted in global equity content in your portfolio, we recommend giving this a second look.

Tip: For downside protection in equities, look to banks/financial sector and utilities in your investment holdings this year.

Bonds and Fixed Income

Canada enters 2026 with subdued demand but room for additional monetary policy easing as inflation nears the Bank of Canada’s target of 2%. Watch for some interest rate decreases with the bank of Canada and in the U.S., with potentially lower bank rates for home and other lending.

Fixed income investments may represent better opportunity for low-risk investors and downside protection and may be the bright spot in low risk investing this year.

Bonds on the other hand may experience lacklustre performance in 2026, as expected US interest rate decreases negatively affect the value of long-term bonds.

Alternatives to government could include corporate bonds, as companies look to raise capital to fund growth (think Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “Build Canada” and the AI boom).

4. How to Benefit from the AI (Artificial Intelligence) Boom?

When looking for AI investment opportunities look beyond the US.

  • The U.S. maintains AI market advantages of liquidity, large scale and technological depth
  • Did you know that 40% of the S&P 500 index is driven by AI right now?
  • China and India, for example, can represent significant AI opportunity in a different way than the US market

Tip: Finding growth in 2026 and beyond from the artificial intelligence boom may be challenging, so investing in AI broadly and globally and may be your best bet.

5. Equity markets will ‘refocus on fundamentals’

What does this even mean? It means that we expect company valuations to adjust this year from the high valuations of the past two years, and most importantly, that stock market gains in 2026 will come from real growth and earnings rather than company valuations.

Recap of ‘what to watch’:

  • Geopolitical developments and trade negotiations
  • AI-driven development, including the level of investment and the adoption rate of this technology by companies — and how they will be using it
  • Inflation trends and central bank policy paths in Canada and the U.S.
  • Expected corporate earnings resilience amid shifting ‘market fundamentals’

Bonus Tip

Investing can be complex and 2026 will not be a ‘slam-dunk’ for investors. If you aren’t working with an advisor now, this may be a great year to consider building your ‘investing team’ to include one that can help you navigate and understand this year’s market dynamics. Reach out to Plan For Wealth with any questions.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not to be considered professional advice or to be used in substitution of seeking guidance from a licensed, experienced professional.

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